... HIV/AIDS in South Africa. Rapid progress in reducing fertility could only have a major impact in the second half of this century. Yet the commodity boom explains only part of Africa’s broader growth story. As of 2015, sub-Saharan Africa’s population, at 970 million, is now one-third larger than that of Europe. The decline in fertility rates combined with increased life expectancy in most parts of the world means not only a slowing of population growth but also an older population. Fertility rates in African countries with the highest and lowest rates of fertility change, 2005–2010 to 2010–2015, excluding small island states. That is about one-tenth the GDP of East Asia or of Europe and under three percent of total global output. For comparison, China increased its urban population by 583 million in the thirty-five years from 1980 to 2015; that is only 58% of the increase in urban population that Africa is expected to add in the next thirty-five years. Indeed, among the literally billions of Africans who will be born in the 21st century, there are no doubt future Mozarts, Einsteins, Salks, and Picassos, as well as brilliant performers, writers, and thinkers of all kinds. Population growth Global population has increased by 2.9 billion over the past 35 years, from 4.4 billion in 1980 to 7.3 billion in 2015. In sum, the reason that tropical Africa continues to have extraordinarily high fertility is rooted in both this region’s distinctive extended family culture and its deep deficiency in secondary education. Moreover, as Véronique Hertrich has argued, women in Africa face particular difficulties in asserting their choices about their reproductive behavior. Almost all population growth in the coming decades is thus expected to end up in cities. Thus, it is almost impossible to expect Africa’s population to do any less than double by 2050, and that would be an optimistic projection. Collinson, who will be speaking at the Africa Health Congress 2018 at Gallagher Estate today (29 May) says that this demographic dividend is a potential developmental gain created by window of time where fertility has fallen for several years but the ageing population has not yet risen significantly. Then with improvements in mortality and other indices of economic development, fertility steadily declined. Overcrowded countries such as the Philippines, India, … This would suggest an opportunity for rapid fertility reduction in Africa by investing in women’s education. But if cities are overwhelmed with migrants, the construction of transport, housing, electricity, and sanitation lags behind, creating vast slums of substandard housing, rutted roads, and squatters. In short, the total economic output of Africa is not much more than a rounding error in the global economy.50. That is not likely to change anytime soon. In the sixty years from 1980 to 2040, tropical Africa will have gone from having half the population of Europe to having twice its population.49, Nonetheless, Africa’s economy remains quite small, due to the deep poverty of its population. In sub-Saharan Africa, per capita GDP is now less than it was in 1974, having declined over 11 percent. In regard to climate change, much of the world’s fate depends on what happens in Africa. Lower infant mortality, in turn, has a somewhat stronger effect on reducing desired family size in Africa than in other developing countries but a much weaker effect on birth intervals. Some economists have worried that if robots and automation take over work in the developing world, there will not be the kind of low-wage manufacturing work for exports available for Africans that helped Asia move forward.37 Yet there are plenty of needs within Africa for African workers to address if the transport networks for intra-African trade were developed. However, in Africa, extended family child-care systems have developed that allow women to avoid this trade-off. With a handful of countries being primarily responsible for this growth, about 83 million people are being added to the population each year even though it is expected that fertility levels will continue to decline. What if Africa can’t absorb all those people? As Bongaarts notes, real income per capita in sub-Saharan Africa grew hardly at all from the 1970s to the 2010s, while real income in other developing regions rose sharply in these decades.8 Goujon, Lutz, and Samir have pointed out that many sub-Saharan countries had a “stall” in their progress in education that may have produced a “stall” in progress in reducing fertility.9 Thus it could be posited that Africa is simply behind in certain attainments and will eventually catch up to other regions. As an example, there are many countries in Africa whose growth rate is higher than India. Africa today includes giant countries with populations near or exceeding 100 million (Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria) and tiny countries with populations under 1 million (Comoros, Djibouti, Cabo Verde, Reunion, Mayotte, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles). The population of Africa is expected to roughly double by 2050. (2) Investments were made to increase enrollments in secondary/vocational and tertiary education, reaching 100% for secondary/vocational enrollments. To be sure, Africa has benefited from the surge in commodity prices over the past decade. Yet they also exhibited a huge increase in youth population and urbanization, severely unequal distribution of the benefits of growth, high degrees of corruption and political exclusion, and struggled to keep up with prior commitments to subsidize food prices, fuel, and government employment. A WHO report published in 2005 explains that overpopulation “is a breakdown of the ecological balance in which the population may exceed the carrying capacity of the environment.” This means weakened food production, leading to inadequate food consumption and malnutrition. And (3) as populations moved from the countryside to the cities, they found work in factories and service firms, expanding the formal economy. Yet on average, female education is the single most important factor in reducing fertility in tropical Africa. Forecasting of Africa’s demographic trajectory based on expectations that it would follow the pattern of other regions has thus been badly misleading. Still, the overall pattern is familiar—as incomes rise, urbanization and women’s education and employment rise as well, and all of these factors produce a decline in desired family size and increases in birth spacing, producing lower fertility. Just how many of us are there and how is our rising population affecting human health? If, say in 2025 a combination of climate disaster and civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (estimated population then of 104 million) or Ethiopia (126 million) or South Africa (62 million) broke out, might it also send millions of refugees streaming toward Europe? By 2050, Ethiopia, Egypt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania will each have larger populations than Russia. Table 2. Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: Economic, Political, and International. Many of the countries of tropical Africa are likely to follow this path in regard to both economic growth and educational progress, combined with not enough jobs, strained governments, corruption, autocracy, and extreme climate events. However, they are not considered overpopulated since their density is less than 100 per square kilometer as compared to India’s 324. Africa’s unique high fertility regime will produce high rates of population growth in coming decades. Unfortunately, most tropical sub-Saharan African countries are far from this point, and with high fertility and falling infant mortality, they are not closing in on it. Women in Africa often are married while young to much older men or have to compete with co-wives in polygamous marriages. Prices for minerals, grain, and other raw materials also soared on rising global demand. Abstract PIP: Rapid population growth is one of the major contributing factors to the poverty and under-development of Third World countries--especially African countries, which boast the highest population growth rates in the world. From 2010 to 2017, Europe received nearly one million asylum applications from sub-Saharan Africans who reached its shores, more than half of them in the three years 2015–2017; the United States received fewer, about 400,000 from 2010 to 2016. But the large number of children is not a blessing for families. To understand future fertility in Africa, we thus need to take a closer look at its progress in education. It is under 25% in, among others, Rwanda, Congo, Uganda, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. That is certainly closer to the median for Africa as a whole. have written, it is now clear that the impact of demographic conditions on a state’s “security, democracy, and development is significant and quantifiable.”44 They note that: The finding that countries with very young populations are more vulnerable to conflict holds true despite the maturation of age structures globally at the end of the twentieth century. Regarding similarities, in Africa rising income does lead to higher urbanization and to lower infant mortality, although the latter effect is much weaker in Africa. And while Africa has most of the world’s highly ethnically diverse countries, some African countries are quite low in ethnic diversity (Burundi, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt).1. © 2020 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University. If CO2 emissions per capita by that date were merely to rise to the level of India today, Africa’s total CO2 output would quadruple to 5.45 million mt of CO2 per year—the same total as the United States today. The pressures on Africa’s labor markets, urban centers, and political stability from the population growth that will inevitably occur by mid-century will be immense. Join the Hoover Institution’s But where will 200 million additional city-dwellers go? According to Bongaarts and Casterline, “… the median pace of change in sub-Saharan Africa (0.03 per year) is less than one-third the pace in the other regions [Asia and Latin America] (0.12 and 0.13, respectively).”10 Indeed, the behavior of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa is wholly at odds with the idea that economic progress determines the pace of fertility decline; as Bongaarts has shown, fertility rose when the region’s GDP/capita was relatively high in the 1970s, then began the onset of fertility decline in the early 1990s, when GDP/capita had fallen considerably, and then encountered a widespread stall in fertility decline in the 2000s, when GDP/capita had been rising more rapidly.11. At present there are already violent extremist movements active in Nigeria (Boko Haram), Somalia (al-Shabab), Uganda (Lord’s Resistance Army), Mali (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb), and elsewhere. Treatment of these diseases, which include hypertension, high cholesterol, arthritis, diabetes, heart disease, cancer, dementia, and congestive heart failure, add pressure to the health care system. In other developing regions, a cluster of modernizing changes work in tandem, reinforcing changes that stretch out birth intervals and thus reduce fertility. (See Figure 1), Table 1. Generally, population patterns are diverse. In sum, Africa is different. Growth regions. Yet this market will still be of little interest to global multi-nationals. Across all these countries, female enrollment ratios never reach even 50%. As late as 1980, sub-Saharan Africa had just 372 million people, and Africa as a whole had 480 million; at this time Asia had 2.6 billion people. As the world’s largest pool of youth aged 15–24, it is also likely to be an incubator and recruiting ground for all kinds of extremist ideologies. What are the prospects for a major increase in migration from these and other countries? Indeed, probably the single most important investment for international donors that can be made in Africa’s future—both for the earning capacity of its population and stemming the flood of population growth after 2050—is to target universal secondary education for both sexes. Could Niger go from 20 million to nearly 70 million by mid-century, or Angola to 76 million? Higher economic growth brought with it positive trends in poverty reduction in both urban and rural areas. Only very few countries have fertility declining at double-digit rates over this period. Even giant Nigeria has but 215 people per square kilometer. While Africa will have a vast number of potential consumers, their actual purchasing power will be modest. Given the rapid decline in mortality that Africa has enjoyed, and the still high fertility that it maintains, the future will be one of extremely rapid population growth. But because of the growing demographic weight of sub-Saharan Africa, the growth rate for Africa as a whole remained at 2.6 % per year up through 2015 and is projected (again, the medium variant projection) to decline only slowly to 2.5% per year by 2020 and 2.4% by 2025 as fertility falls. However, fertility remains high in most cases, even in countries where fertility decline has been rapid. “The resources – monetary and otherwise – that would otherwise have been absorbed by raising children and supporting large families can be invested in productive and household savings,” says Collinson, who describes this phenomenon as a potential ‘demographic dividend’. There are several direct consequences of overpopulation:. For some regions, the new projections are almost thirty to forty percent higher than those of 2010. Tropical parasites and diseases, which reduce human and animal productivity, are being conquered. Future population growth can only result to further degradation of our environment. Yet this is unsatisfactory for two reasons. A United Nations report released in 2017 puts the current world population at 7.6 billion people. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is projected to have 100 million new urban residents by 2050, Egypt 85 million, Ethiopia and Tanzania 75 million. Yet it managed to reduce its fertility and improve its education and economic infrastructure so that it was poised for rapid growth in the following decade. The great difficulty is whether there will be jobs for those who move to the cities. 80% of that comes from just six fossil fuel dependent industrializing countries: South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Libya, Egypt and Morocco. Other parts of the world also have growing populations, but that is mainly because their adult populations are healthier and living longer. If this proves to be a sustained trend, rather than just a blip, it would contribute further to overall African growth. In the 1950s, before the onset of the demographic transition, Africa’s population was growing at 2.2% per year. Unfortunately, all these tragic trends could be forecast from the state of African demography. Women’s employment—whether for young women or for all women—has no significant impact at all! By contrast, in eastern Africa in the late 1980s, fertility was still above seven children per woman. But overpopulation is seldom discussed as a public health issue. Two and a half years ago, Zambia was one of Africa’s most stable democracies, a place so functional that it rarely made international headlines. Based on the experience of other developing regions, these improvements in Africa’s mortality, especially infant mortality, would be expected to lead to similarly impressive reductions in fertility. Figure 1. It is thus vital that Africa be put on a course of solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear power for its fuel needs. These are the only large regions of the world where, even after decades of falling mortality, fertility remains at or above five children per woman.4. Almost all of them will be converging on cities, looking for a better life than they had in the countryside. To some degree, construction and service jobs grow in parallel with urbanization as expanding cities create their own demand. The latter risks were brought home with the outbreak of Ebola in the United States in 2014. Japan and other countries are investing as well. Women’s employment thus has a strong impact on fertility. Richard Cincotta has found that the chance of a country being a stable democracy exceeds 50% only once it has progressed in its demographic transition to the point where its median age is 29.5; the chances of being a stable democracy rise to 80% when median age reaches 35.46 With a few exceptions in northern and southern Africa, virtually all African countries have a median age below 25, and for many it is below 20. This will create risks and anxieties, tempting the developed world to try to wall itself off from Africa. Indeed, for Nigeria, whose population is divided between a higher-fertility and faster growing Muslim population in the north and a lower fertility and hence slower growing Christian population in the south, it may well be that fertility decline slows as the Muslim population becomes an ever-larger portion of Nigeria’s total population. Africa’s CO2 output per person is thus a mere 1.1 tons per year. Accompanying rapid population growth in the past has been greater species loss and a higher attrition within species than would have occurred in the absence of human expansion. Next to climate change, the largest impact that Africa is likely to have on the international system is through a growing contribution to international migration. By 2070, after thirty years in which all growth in the labor force in the world will be in sub-Saharan Africa, that region will have a working-age population of 1.8 billion, more than the United States, India, and China combined. That is, Africa has invested mainly in primary education, leaving a great deficit in secondary education. That is to be expected, as increases in income and urbanization will lead to higher per capita fuel and electric consumption. John Bongaarts, summing up the experience of most developing regions, notes that “As societies modernize, economic and social changes such as industrialization, urbanization, new occupational structure, and increased education lead first to lower mortality and subsequently to a decline in fertility.”7 The puzzle as to why these changes have not produced lower fertility in Africa, as they have done elsewhere, has given rise to two main answers: First, it is true that Africa has not yet experienced the same increases in education, income, and other indices of modernization that have been seen in Asia and Latin America. But for all other African states, with median age of 22 or less, the probability of achieving stable democracy is 10–20%. These gains in life expectancy are mainly due to dramatic declines in infant mortality. Yet in Africa, a wholly different pattern developed. A different and more pragmatic approach to migration would be to view the vast numbers of young workers in Africa as an untapped resource. But it remains to be seen if this can keep up with the forecast urban growth. well-being of the entire population and of all indi- ... identified as having an important effect on eco-nomic growth. Syria also was affected by climate change, as a severe drought disrupted rural areas and spurred urban migration. society. North Africa has had a much higher rate of migration outside of Africa, with many north Africans working in the Gulf oil countries and, more recently, refugees from the Libyan civil war seeking asylum in Europe. Yet if Africa fails to do so, the ever-larger swelling of its population will mean that its economic lags and political instability will only increase and become an even greater burden for the international system later in the century. But by 2018, it had become clear that many of these states have joined the global trend toward the reassertion of strongman, autocratic rule. Africa's Demographic Transition : Dividend or Disaster?. The sudden flow of foreigners to Europe’s borders raised fears of loss of identity and control among Europeans and promoted authoritarian governance.56 If roughly every decade a major crisis were to send 500,000 to one million African refugees to Europe’s borders, that could have the effect of periodically exacerbating identity crises and political extremism, reinforcing populist regimes, and doing sustained damage to European democracy. This would include provision of humanitarian aid for larger populations likely to be affected by extreme climate events and provision of peace-keeping and refugee settlement and support for populations likely to be affected by rebellions and civil wars. Still, the number of sub-Saharan Africans seeking to move to the United States and Europe has been steadily rising. John and Pat Caldwell, who have led this line of argument, point to the exceptionally high desired family size that appears in African surveys.13 It has also been noted that in Africa, due to traditional taboos on post-partum intercourse and long breast-feeding periods, birth spacing was historically relatively high. There was a long period of stationary growth (no growth) until 1000 b.c.e., when the world's population was approximately 300 million; this was followed by a period of slow growth from 1000 b.c.e. Many potential African migrants to the United States and Europe are Christians who speak French or English, mitigating anxieties about how they would “fit” into American or European society. Indeed, the median age for Africa as a whole is just 19.4 years. Even Bangladesh, once written off as a basket case, and whose own population doubled in the 30 years from 1975 to 2005, has emerged as a success, being one of the world’s fastest growing economies and raising its per capita income by 64% in the decade from 2007 to 2017.58 But Bangladesh’s performance depended on reducing its fertility from 6.9 children per woman in 1970–75 to 2.5 in 2005–10, and making investments in its human capital and infrastructure that allowed it to become a major textile manufacturer and exporter and create its own financial, steel, pharmaceuticals, and food processing industries. (See Figure 2), If we run the same path analysis on African countries, we would perhaps expect, following Bongaarts, that these relationships would still obtain but be weaker, or that, following Goujon, Lutz and Samir, that education would have a larger impact. As demographers Jean-Pierre Guengant and John F. May have observed, “This pattern of persisting high levels of fertility in the majority of African countries differs markedly from what has been observed in other developing countries since 1960.”5 Yet as population expert John Casterline recently observed, “there is nothing approaching consensus on the sources of this difference.”6. If you are interested in telling stories in an impactful way to shine a spotlight on a particular issue, please email us. The UN medium variant projection generally assumes that countries with higher fertility will shift to a more rapid decline in coming years. Africa would likely make greater progress under regimes, whether autocratic or democratic, that respect the rule of law, develop strong private sectors, and invest in education and infrastructure than under regimes, whether autocratic or democratic, that are highly unstable, corrupt, ineffective, and invest mainly in show-projects and elite consumption. 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